Democrats have won both chambers of Congress in the US midterms, gaining seven Senate seats without losing one. What the new majority can do against Trump, why impeachment would achieve little, why Europe should not relax, and which voters turned the election.
Res.Publica, November 4, 2026. As of midday November 4 (CET). Mississippi and Alaska are still uncalled.
The result
According to race calls by AP, NBC News, CBS News and Decision Desk HQ, Democrats hold 54 of 100 Senate seats and Republicans 44. That count includes the two independents who caucus with Democrats. Before the election it was 47 to 53. Democrats flipped North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Maine, where longtime Senator Susan Collins lost. Republicans did not flip a single Democratic seat. Seven pickups is more than in the last big wave against a sitting president, in 2006, when Democrats gained six.
Some results are historic. Kansas is sending a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1932, Texas for the first time since 1988, South Carolina for the first time since 1998.
Two races are open. In Mississippi, Democrat Scott Colom led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes early Wednesday, with about 96 percent counted. Thousands of affidavit ballots are still outstanding, and reviewing them can take up to five business days. In Alaska, Republican Dan Sullivan leads Mary Peltola narrowly. Ranked-choice tabulation there only starts on November 18.
AP also called the House for Democrats at around 1:30 a.m. Eastern. The size of the majority is not yet clear. Hakeem Jeffries is set to become Speaker, the first Black member to hold the office.
What the new majority can and cannot do
The new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027. From then on:
Impeachment is possible, removal practically is not. A simple House majority is enough to impeach. Conviction requires two thirds of the Senate, 67 votes. Democrats would need at least eleven Republicans. Trump saw it coming. In January he told House Republicans: “They’ll find a reason to impeach me.” Democratic leaders have not committed either way. They know the math: Trump was impeached in 2019 and 2021 and acquitted both times. A third trial with no prospect of removal could help him more than hurt him.
The real weapon is the subpoena. The majority runs the committees and can demand documents and compel witnesses. Robert Garcia, the incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee, posted just “LAWYER UP” on election night. Senator Ron Wyden posted “Subpoenas.” Likely targets are the Trump family’s crypto business, government contracts with Elon Musk’s companies, the Iran war and the Epstein files. The catch: the administration can ignore subpoenas. Then courts decide, and that can drag on until the 2028 presidential election.
No Congress, no budget. Democrats can attach conditions to funding, for example for the Iran war, and risk shutdowns. That power is weaker than it looks on paper. The White House has already let appropriated money expire instead of spending it.
The Senate decides on personnel. Cabinet members, ambassadors and federal judges need its consent, including any new Supreme Court justice. From January, Democrats hold a real veto here.
Few new laws. Before the election Trump said: “I’ll veto everything.” Overriding a veto takes two thirds in both chambers. The day after, his tone was softer: Democrats had done a “good job,” and he saw room to work together, for example on immigration.
The most dangerous two months
Until January 3, Republicans still control both chambers. This lame-duck period is now the most interesting phase. In mid-October, Punchbowl News reported that Senate Republicans planned to confirm as many federal judges as possible in November and December if they lost the majority.
The big question is whether one of the two oldest conservative justices, Clarence Thomas (78) or Samuel Alito (76), retires now, so that the Republican Senate can still confirm a successor. Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation in 2020 showed it can be done within weeks. Law professor Dale Carpenter still thinks a retirement is unlikely, because right after an election defeat it would look like pure party politics. It cannot be ruled out.
The same applies to the Iran war, which began in February. Democrats have promised to end it, but they cannot force anything before January.
Why Europe should not relax
In Europe the result is read as a blow to Trump. For the EU and Germany, little changes, and things could even get harder.
On tariffs, Trump does not need Congress. After the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs in February, they now run through Section 301 of the Trade Act, according to Euronews, with no vote in Congress. The Graham Act, passed in September, gives the White House additional tariff powers against countries that keep buying Russian oil. Bernd Lange (SPD), chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, warns: “A lame duck could become an angry duck.” A president blocked at home tends to look for wins where he decides alone: trade and foreign policy.
Ukraine looks similar. Congress can approve new money, and many Democrats want to. But the White House has already let approved funds expire. Joan Lee of the European Council on Foreign Relations advises Europeans to “treat earmarked funds as intent, not commitment.”
Markets reacted cautiously. The euro rose 0.4 percent on Wednesday morning, gold 2 percent, and DAX futures were down about 0.5 percent.
Who turned the election
According to CBS News’ early exit polls, Trump’s approval stood at 38 percent. CBS says that is the lowest for a president in a midterm election, lower than George W. Bush in 2006 and lower than in Trump’s first term. In the AP Voter Poll of about 80,000 voters, roughly four in ten named the economy as the top issue and about three in ten the state of democracy. About half called the cost of living and corruption crucial.
The clearest shift is among young voters. According to AP, about seven in ten voters under 30 backed Democrats, after the youngest voters were roughly split in 2024. Preliminary data from CIRCLE at Tufts University shows that exactly the groups seen as Trump’s new base in 2024 swung back: young men voted 63 percent Democratic, after 56 percent of them voted for Trump in 2024. Rural young people voted 57 percent Democratic, after 60 percent backed Trump in 2024.
The comparison is not perfect: 2024 was a presidential race, 2026 is the House vote, and the 2026 data is preliminary. But the story of a Gen Z drifting right as a bloc does not survive this election.
Latino voters show a similar pattern. According to AP, about six in ten backed Democrats and only about one third Republicans. In 2024, about four in ten had voted for Trump.
Three things that are easy to miss
The gerrymanders backfired. Texas redrew its districts in 2025 to gain up to five seats. According to the Texas Tribune, none of the targeted districts went safely Republican on election night, and the 15th district in the Rio Grande Valley even flipped to Democrats. In Florida, where Republicans aimed to gain up to four seats, Democrats held several of the redrawn districts. The effect is well known: drawing many narrow Republican majorities means losing more of them in a wave.
Money does not decide elections on its own. At 11.9 billion dollars, this was the most expensive midterm on record, according to OpenSecrets. Outside groups led by Elon Musk spent about 360 million dollars more on Republicans on balance. From their own campaign accounts, however, Democratic candidates outspent Republicans by about 800 million dollars. James Talarico raised 145 million dollars in Texas, his opponent Ken Paxton 22 million.
The second Dan Sullivan. In Alaska, a second Daniel J. Sullivan appeared on the ballot next to Senator Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher with no party label. According to a New York Times report, people working with Democrats recruited him to split the vote. Investigations are underway, nothing is proven. A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit against the count on Sunday. On election night the namesake had 1.7 percent, more than the gap between the two frontrunners. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, his votes move to each voter’s second choice. Anyone who ranked the real Sullivan second loses nothing. What matters is how many of his voters ranked no one else.
What comes next
Mississippi will be decided in the coming days, and Alaska from November 18. Then comes the lame duck: judges, the Iran war and the budget. From January 3, the first subpoenas will follow. And Democrats need to work out who leads them into the 2028 presidential race. Talarico, Andrews and Cooper have just made their case. Trump himself cannot run again.
Sources
- CBS News, Democrats win the Senate: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-control-democrats-republicans-2026-midterm-elections/
- PBS NewsHour / AP, Senate results: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-take-control-of-the-senate-after-winning-key-midterm-races
- Boston Globe, overview and timing of race calls: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/11/04/nation/midterm-elections-results-blue-wave/
- CBS News, Maine: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-2026-senate-collins-jackson/
- OPB / AP, South Carolina: https://www.opb.org/article/2026/11/03/democrat-annie-andrews-wins-us-senate-election-in-south-carolina-over-republican-darline-graham/
- KBTX, Mississippi (43 votes, as of 3 a.m.): https://www.kbtx.com/2026/11/04/colom-hyde-smith-separated-by-narrow-margin-mississippi-senate-race/
- Magnolia Tribune, Mississippi, affidavit ballots: https://magnoliatribune.com/2026/11/04/too-close-to-call/
- Alaska Public Media, Alaska: https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/elections/2026-11-03/peltola-takes-early-lead-in-alaskas-u-s-senate-race
- Newsweek, Alaska counting timeline: https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-congress-alaska-senate-race-12660748
- Votebeat, the second Dan Sullivan and ranked choice: https://www.votebeat.org/national/2026/11/02/alaska-midterm-senate-sullivan-peltola-ranked-choice-voting/
- CBS News, House: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/
- AFP via Yahoo, what happens next: https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democratic-takeover-us-congress-happens-063238590.html
- Al Jazeera, what the majority means: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/4/democrats-win-the-us-senate-what-does-this-mean
- Yahoo, Trump on impeachment (January 6): https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-house-republicans-dont-win-163958688.html
- Punchbowl News, judges in the lame duck: https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/republicans-judicial-nominee-backlog/
- Reason / Volokh Conspiracy, Thomas and Alito: https://reason.com/volokh/2026/11/02/will-alito-or-thomas-retire-if-democrats-win-the-senate
- The Parliament Magazine, Ukraine and Europe: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/the-democrats-won-americas-midterms-that-wont-alter-trumps-position-on-ukraine-or-europe
- Euronews, markets, tariffs and Europe: https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/04/us-midterms-what-trumps-defeat-means-for-europe-and-global-markets
- CBS News, exit poll: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-exit-polls-midterm-elections-2026/
- PBS NewsHour / AP Voter Poll, voter groups: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/ap-voter-poll-how-key-demographic-groups-voted-in-the-2026-midterms
- CIRCLE (Tufts University), youth vote by group: https://circle.tufts.edu/youth-vote-choice-demographics-2026-midterms
- CIRCLE (Tufts University), youth vote overall: https://circle.tufts.edu/national-youth-vote-choice-2026-midterms
- Texas Tribune, Texas redistricting: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-congress-us-house-redistricting-elections-2026/
- Mother Jones, Florida redistricting: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/11/republicans-gerrymandered-these-florida-districts-democrats-won-them-anyway/
- AFP via Yahoo, numbers behind the result (spending, historic wins): https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/numbers-tell-story-democrats-midterm-064549091.html
